Game Preview: Vanderbilt vs. St. Mary’s – NCAA Tournament Round 1

When:
Friday, March 21, 2025
Tip-off: Approx. 2:30 PM CST (25 minutes after Game 1 in the session)

Where:
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

Broadcast Information:

• TV/Streaming: TruTV / NCAA March Madness App
• Radio: 102.5 FM (Local Nashville broadcast)
• SiriusXM: Channel 202 (Vanderbilt broadcast)

Team Rankings & Seedings:

• AP Poll: Both teams unranked
• KenPom Rankings: St. Mary’s (#22), Vanderbilt (#49)
• NET Ranking: St. Mary’s (#21), Vanderbilt (#48)
• NCAA Tournament Seed: St. Mary’s (7), Vanderbilt (10)

Betting Lines:

• Spread: St. Mary’s -4.5
• Over/Under: 136.5
• Moneyline: Vanderbilt +158

How They Got Here:

St. Mary’s Gaels
The St. Mary’s Gaels enter the tournament as a 7-seed after a solid season, finishing runner-up to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference (WCC) Tournament. With an impressive 28-5 overall record, they boast key wins over Nebraska, USC, and Utah. Known for their methodical style of play and disciplined defense, St. Mary’s is ranked 8th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels rely on controlling the pace of the game, making it difficult for opponents to find an offensive rhythm. One of their strengths is offensive rebounding, where they rank 7th in the country. Their defensive play, however, is led by 6’10 center Mitchell Saxen, who has been dominant in the paint. The Gaels will need to dominate inside and improve their shooting to have a chance to advance.

Vanderbilt Commodores
The Commodores return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 under the leadership of first-year head coach Mark Byington. Despite finishing the season with three straight losses to Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas in the SEC Tournament, Vanderbilt’s resume includes impressive wins against five top-15 teams. Their fast-paced offense, which thrives on athleticism and quick transitions, contrasts with St. Mary’s slower tempo. To advance, the Commodores must break out of their recent scoring drought and prevent their opponents from going on extended runs. Key players like AJ Hoggard and Jason Edwards, who have valuable postseason experience, will be pivotal to their success. Additionally, controlling St. Mary’s offensive rebounding and avoiding foul trouble will be essential for Vanderbilt.

What to Expect:

St. Mary’s:
The Gaels' strength lies in their defense, particularly in the paint and at the three-point line. Led by the towering presence of Mitchell Saxen, St. Mary’s will look to disrupt Vanderbilt’s offense and control the boards. Augustas Marciulionis, their leading scorer, will be key in putting up points for the Gaels, but their offensive rebounding is their true weapon. If the Gaels can dominate the glass and force Vanderbilt into a half-court game, they’ll be in a strong position. However, they aren’t a reliable shooting team, and their recent 0-for-16 performance from beyond the arc in the WCC final raises concerns. They’ll need to avoid another poor shooting performance to stay competitive.

Vanderbilt:
For the Commodores, the key will be their up-tempo style of play. Vanderbilt thrives when they push the pace and force opponents into quick transitions. St. Mary’s struggles against athletic teams that like to run, so Vanderbilt will need to play to that advantage. However, Vanderbilt has been inconsistent in stopping their opponents’ runs in recent games, so getting crucial stops on defense will be critical. Players like Jaylen Carey and Devin McGlockton will need to keep St. Mary’s off the offensive glass and avoid foul trouble. Vanderbilt will need multiple players contributing offensively to keep pace with the Gaels and have a chance to advance.

Final Thoughts & Prediction:

This matchup is a clash of styles—Vanderbilt’s high-tempo offense vs. St. Mary’s methodical, defensive game plan. The Gaels will aim to slow down the pace and control the paint, while Vanderbilt will try to push the tempo and capitalize on any shooting struggles from St. Mary’s. The key to Vanderbilt’s success will be controlling the boards and limiting St. Mary’s second-chance points while staying efficient offensively.

Prediction: Vanderbilt pulls off the upset, winning 72-68, with their athleticism and fast-paced offense proving too much for St. Mary’s to handle.

‍