Against the odds, Tennessee (#4 AP, 18-4, 5-4 SEC) avenged a 30-point beatdown from weeks ago in Gainesville, beating the Gators by 20 in Knoxville. Despite going into the game with a 61% win probability (according to Kenpom), the Vols seemed almost sure to lose on Saturday with starters Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic sidelined with injury and illness. But Jahmai Mashack charged his teammates with the mantra “We’ve got enough right here,” and his words proved true. By halftime, the Vols were in the middle of a 14-2 run that would push their lead to 9. By the middle of the second half, another UT run sparked by a Jordan Gainey three and capped by another triple from Chaz Lanier (who went 5/9 on the day from behind the arc) would increase the lead to 20, which was the final margin.

Meanwhile Missouri (#15 AP, 17-4, 6-2 SEC) pulled off an impressive 88-61 road win at Mississippi State. The Tigers shot 47% from three, led by reserve SG Caleb Grill’s 6/11 (55%) from deep. From 4:00 left in the first half to 13:00 left in the game, Mizzou outscored the Bulldogs 29-7, putting the game out of reach.

Previously on Vols vs. Tigers

Tennessee beat Missouri 72-67 in CoMo last season. The Vols were lead by Dalton Knecht’s first double-double in orange (17 points/10 rebounds) to pull the Vols from down seven to up 13 points with 4:00 left in the game. It was just the second win out of the last five games in the series for UT (you might remember DeAndre Gholston’s buzzer beater in 2023 at TBA), though the Vols have won six of the last 10 and hold a slim 12-10 lead all-time between these two schools that haven’t played each other much historically. Tennessee is 5-4 against Mizzou in Knoxville.

Scouting Missouri

• In all six of their SEC wins, Missouri has led for the entirety of the second half.
• Mizzou is the first power conference team in 30 years to average eight made threes and 20 made free throws a game.
• GR SG #31 Caleb Grill doesn’t start for the Tigers, but he is a major piece of what Mizzou does offensively. Grill is top-10 nationally in Offensive Rating (140.1, #8) and 3-Point % (49%, #7). Those numbers are also tops in the SEC.

Prediction

After being down to seven scholarship players in Saturday’s heroic win against Florida, Tennessee should be back to full strength against the Tigers Wednesday night. Missouri is an incredibly dangerous team that has somewhat flown under the radar this season, sitting at third in the SEC standings while not getting the publicity of other league teams like UT, Auburn, Florida, or Kentucky. Even the Saga of Coach Cal at Arkansas has stolen a greater share of the spotlight than Mizzou, who has quietly racked up wins against programs like Kansas, Florida, and both Mississippi schools. Missouri’s losses, also, have been quality. In losses to Memphis, Illinois, Auburn, and Texas—all away from the friendly confines of Columbia, MO it should be noted—only the Auburn loss was by 10+ points. All four of those losses came in seven of Mizzou’s worst 3-point shooting nights, and if you filter out November, you have three MU losses in their three worst nights behind the arc. That fact bodes well for Tennessee, the nation’s #1 3-point defense. Tennessee wants you to shoot 3s, but not every UT opponent is as adept at shooting long balls as Missouri is. If Caleb Grill comes off the bench on fire and the Tigers get those deep shots to fall, and if Tennessee cannot answer on the offensive end (a very real struggle for most of this SEC season for the Vols), then UT could be in deep trouble. However it’s hard not to think of Saturday’s game as some kind of turning point for the Vols. All things being equal, the team that had “enough” to beat the Gators should have enough to beat Missouri and remain above .500 in SEC play with a road trip on the horizon. Vols 76, Mizzou 70.