A SELECT TWO

Only two head coaches have won a national championship in their first season of college football in the past seventy-five years. Both were at the University of Miami. In 1989 and 2001.

The only other coach to come close was Gus Malzahn and the 2013 Auburn Tigers, who lost it to Florida State, which ended up costing Texas A&M a LOT of money. (Jimbo)

HOW RARE IS IT?

Since there are three new head coaches in the SEC this season, let’s do the math. An outstanding head coach with a stacked team full of future NFL stars (Miami when Johnson left) has a 2.63157895% chance of accomplishing the feat. Without an incredible amount of luck and an injury free season, a first year SEC coach right now has a 0.746268657% of winning it all.

There are 3 teams in the SEC with new coaches. Alabama, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. That percentage holds true for them as well.  

WHAT ABOUT THE PLAYOFFS?

Factoring in the Strength of schedule, Texas A&M has the highest percentage chance of those three at even making the playoffs at 8.95522388%. Alabama is 7.403233%.  I will pause while everyone stands in shock at the next statement: Mississippi State vanishes in this metric.  

The general thought process by many going into this season is that 2 L’s will be max losses to still get in the 12-team playoff from the ranks of the SEC. With these numbers as a preamble, let’s see if we can set some reasonable expectations for all three teams with a new coach in the SEC. I am going to let the analytics control a majority of this and take out the emotion.

This will not measure the intangibles, but it will manage the schedules, home vs away, and placement of games in the schedule.  

For fun, before everyone on these reasonable fanbases gets angry (sic), the two teams with the highest chance of losing two games or less are Georgia and Missouri. Odd to most of our eyes, Missouri has a much higher chance of losing one game or less than Georgia. Missouri has a higher chance of being a one loss team than a majority of the SEC has of making it to the two-loss max threshold. Keeping in mind they must play the games, here it is for the three new guys, In alphabetical order:  

Alabama: Kalen Deboer

The stories coming out of fall camp are endearing.

Ice cream, Wakanda chants, A defensive coordinator running around in 100-degree heat in a hoody are all fun. Yet, this is a program that is trying to replace a man that was, by most metrics, is the best coach in college football history. Certainly, during the past quarter century. That brings back the tiny percentages back at the beginning of this.

I cannot factor in how many teams want to take their best shot at Alabama for what they have accomplished over the past fifteen years. I imagine that would rock this chart. Analytic expectations indicate losses away at Tennessee, at home vs Missouri, and a loss at LSU. Currently the Iron Bowl is a coin flip. This team does not make the playoffs. (in theory)  

Opinion: While this is a great win/loss schedule for a team with a new coach and a new system, the Alabama fanbase might not agree or like it. This team does have enough talent to burst this cycle and make a deep run. Milroe gets even a tweak for a game or two, which is not out of the question, this team could fall off the map. He is that important to the success/failure rate of this team.

The coaching is the wildcard. The secondary is questionable (this is why the computer loves Cook and his WR corp. The Vegas oddsmakers, not so much). Personally, I think there is too much talent on this team for them not to make the playoffs.

That being said, a loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl would more than likely further tilt the recruiting efforts in Auburn’s direction. This would be detrimental to not only the new Bama coaching staff, but to the program for the next several years. It is delusional to believe there will not be some level of drop off.  

Texas A&M: Mike Elko

Look up do less with more in the dictionary and you will see Jimbo Fisher’s face in an A&M hat. A lot of wasted time and a large financial loss later, defensive guru Mike Elko is the new head man. He has a lot of great recruiting classes to play with, but the analytic expectations predict A&M losses against Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU, and Texas at home with an away loss at Auburn to put them at five losses.  

Opinion: As a human, one would have to take into account that he has only been a head coach for two seasons, and even those were not overly impressive or in a great conference. Much like Deboer now, he was blessed with an amazing quarterback at Duke, when that QB went down, so did he. However, this is an immensely talented team and could have a fantastic year if Connor Weigman stays healthy. Or it could be a traumatic experience for the eleventh man.

I saw one prognosticator predicting Texas going 11-1 with their one loss to A&M. It truly is all over the place. No one can be sure if this is the time for A&M to participate wholly in the SEC or if Elko was a budget stopgap until they get their hooks into a big name. If anyone tells you they have a good feel for where this program is at or where it's going, they are fantasizing at best, lying at worst. Any given week this team could smoke anyone or lose by three touchdowns.  

Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby

Mississippi State wanted Jeff Lebby to take his first shot at being the head ball coach. This hire is a nice five-year gamble for State. If for no other reason than it makes Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss a little more nervous for the egg bowls after this year. This year, the analytics hate the Bulldogs, calling for losses to Florida, Texas, Georgia, A&M, Arkansas, Tennesse, Missouri, and Ole Miss along with disturbingly close games with non-con opponents.  

Opinion: I am not convinced it will be THAT bad. Lebby can call a game, and he got a very good quarterback for his system in Blake Shapen. He will be severely hampered by all new starters on the offensive line. No proven running back behind no offensive line equals a lot of defenders in the box and a lot of losses.

The defense is an absolute mess. They probably don’t win an SEC game. Surely, they will get all their non-conference foes, right? Still, It's bad to be the team that Vandy is wishing was on their schedule.  

If your team is on this list, keep one thing in mind. The longest tenured coach in the SEC now is Stoops out of Kentucky. He has just as many nattys as these guys