John Calipari has long been considered one of the greats in college basketball with a career winning percentage of 75.9% at 3 schools, UMASS, Memphis and Kentucky.

Calipari took over at Kentucky in 2009 and since then has won the conference tournament 6 times in his first 9 seasons. He also appeared in the elite eight 7 times, the final four 4 times, and won the national championship once with 31 total NCAA tournament wins- more than any other coach during this 13 season stretch.

However, since the 2018-2019 season, Kentucky has not advanced past the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament, and has not won an SEC championship. Kentucky has struggled mightily against the AP top 25 as well. So, is Calipari, who was seemingly a lock for at least the elite eight early in his time at Kentucky still considered one of the elite coaches in the game?

Despite the lack of success in terms of championships, I think the answer is still yes. 

College basketball is a “what have you done for me recently?” sport. So it’s easy to glance at Kentucky’s struggles over the last 4 full seasons combined with their struggles lately this season and think that Calipari has lost his edge as a coach. But some of these struggles are skewed by the fact that the NCAA tournament was canceled in 2020 due to Covid, a season in which Kentucky finished 1st in the SEC and was projected as a 4 seed. 

The last three tournaments have not been great for Kentucky. There is no denying that. However, I don’t think the recent tournament difficulties eradicate what he accomplished in the prior 10 seasons. I think this is especially true when you consider his recruiting method.

Calipari is notorious for his recruitment of 5 star 1-and-done prospects. The pipeline he has established between the high school ranks straight to the NBA is unparalleled. Fifty-two of his players have been drafted with 38 of them being 1st rounders and 23 of those being lottery picks. In regards to his recruiting ability and development of individual talent, he is universally considered elite. 

The fact that he has encountered this much success with virtually a brand new team year in and year out points to how great he is in terms of teaching/coaching the game. Throughout his coaching career, changes to the game have favored offensive performance while putting more strain on the defense- especially for those teams with significant youth like the Kentucky Wildcats.

It is the defensive performance of Calipari’s teams, however, that have determined their success. Years when the defense has ranked in at least the top 40 in terms of efficiency, Kentucky has found a lot of tournament success. However, the years where the defense has struggled, they have underperformed in the tournaments or missed it altogether.

I think this variability in the defensive performance, and therefore, the entire team’s success, has a lot to do with how the changes to the college ranks have affected the high school level. Players are way more developed offensively than they are defensively entering college, and it is a guessing game if they will learn quickly enough to collectively morph into a formidable defensive unit. 

This is the nature of the beast when relying exclusively on freshmen. Sometimes you get the right combination of guys and have all of the necessary pieces in place to compete for championships. Other times, you may lack the components needed for a tournament run. This is true for every team regardless of recruiting strategy, but when you reload each year the odds of lacking key pieces is greater and there will be more year-to-year variance. 

I think this is what makes him elite. Sure, he may string together some disappointing seasons, but the full body of work speaks for itself. It is exceedingly difficult to sustain success both in the conference and in the NCAA tournament especially when relying primarily on freshmen. But this is exactly what Calipari has done. Winning a championship is and will always be the goal for Kentucky basketball, but I think what makes him elite is not necessarily the total number of championships but that he is capable of taking such young teams deep into the tournaments more often than not.