The Auburn Tigers enter the final week of the regular season ranked 11th in the AP poll and sit in 4th of the SEC with a 22-7 overall record and 11-5 conference record. The Tigers have consistently been ranked inside at least the top 20 nationally and have also been at or near the top of the SEC for the entire season.

They are currently projected as a 4 seed for the NCAA tournament and will likely enter March Madness the same way they did the season; with high expectations. 

Auburn checks a lot of boxes statistically; ranked 22nd and 18th for points per game and assists per game, respectively, while only surrendering 68 points per game. They also are ranked 6th in both the NET ranking KenPom ranking with offensive and defensive efficiency rankings inside the top 15. We have known this to be true about Auburn all season: they are solid statistically even in their losses as their average margin of defeat is only 8 points. 

That said, there are some concerning characteristics that indicate this may be a team destined for a quick exit from the big dance. The glaring 1-7 record against quad 1 opponents makes it hard to buy into the Tigers entering the tournament. As a 4 seed, they could potentially face a quad 1 caliber opponent in just their 2nd game. 

Maybe even more concerning is that against teams projected to qualify for the tournament, Auburn has a 3-7 record including a loss to Appalachian State. Looking deeper into their resume, Auburn does not have a win against a tournament bound team away from Neville Arena. Not only that, but in their games against tournament opponents away from home, they’re averaging 11 points less per game and giving up almost 11 points more per game. 

There are many things to like about Auburn. They have an old team, an experienced coach, check many statistical categories, and pass the eye test. They have what it takes to beat anyone, and for the most part, have been competitive in every game this season.

But there’s no question that their resume does not match what we see when we watch them play and what’s on paper.

To be fair, records and stats do not matter at all once the tournament starts. Any team is capable of making a run, but all we have to go on when predicting who that team might be is what they’ve shown us prior in the year. For Auburn, they’ve shown us that they’re a great team at home and average when playing anywhere else. 

That’s why I think Auburn is a sweet 16 team, but I do not see them advancing beyond this point of the tournament.