The wait is finally over, and the SEC tournament is officially upon us. We learned about several teams, such as Tennessee who went 8-1 down the stretch including 3 straight wins against top 20 programs and South Carolina who finished the season with only 6 losses, proving they are no fluke. Kentucky caught fire over their last 10 games going 8-2 including an impressive road victory over the Tennessee Volunteers.

But as the NCAA Tournament looms, who has the most to prove during the conference tournament before entering the big dance?

Of the top 5 seeds, I think the Auburn Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide have the most to prove but for different reasons. 

I mentioned before that the Auburn Tigers pass the eye test easily and also check a lot of statistical boxes. Based on metrics, there is a lot to be excited about. That said, their resume away from home is underwhelming.

They accumulated several impressive wins at home including victories against South Carolina and Alabama, but their best win on the road was against the conference’s 10th seed, the Ole Miss Rebels. They are 1-7 against quad 1 opponents and despite being 4-1 in games played on a neutral court, none of those wins came against teams projected to make the field of 68. 

Currently projected to a 4 seed, the Tigers have an opportunity to rack up some impressive wins away from home against top teams. Without wins like that, they cannot be trusted to make a run deep in the tournament. 

The Crimson Tide find themselves in a similar position as the Tigers. Statistically, their offense is one of the best in the conference, and according to KenPom, Alabama has the 2nd most efficient offense in the entire country. However, they did not secure a win away from home against a top conference opponent as their best win came against Mississippi State who is the 9 seed.

An already suspect defense is even worse away from home as they are giving up 99 points per game on the road. KenPom ranks their defense as the 102nd most efficient.  We know that Alabama can beat anyone when their offense is clicking. But just trying to outscore opponents usually does not bode well for teams in tournament play. 

For the record, I think both of these teams are good and not easily beaten. They have the talent and potential to make a run through the SEC and NCAA tournaments. But if the trend of not faring well against the other top teams when playing away from home continues, both of them will lose quickly in the conference tournament and will leave little hope of a deep NCAA tournament run. 

For Auburn, they’ve been fairly consistent both offensively and defensively this entire season, but this has not led to high quality wins away from Neville Arena. Can they change this and collect a couple (or more) wins against the conference elites?

For Alabama, their offense has been solid virtually game in and game out. But can they win on a neutral court in any way other than getting into a shootout?

If both teams can answer these questions, they’ll prove that they’re more than capable of making a deep NCAA run.