The SEC is still early into conference play, but it is slowly starting to take form as Auburn has sole ownership of the leader spot. Behind the Tigers, there is a three-way tie for second place and a three-way tie for third.
As conference play heats up, each of these teams has one major question that must be answered in order to determine their fate.
Auburn
This goes without saying: they’re incredibly good.
The Tigers now sit alone atop the SEC with a perfect 5-0 record. Anyone who watches them play can see that they are as complete of a team in the country and have Final Four potential. The data backs them up as a national contender as well as they’re one of two teams with an offensive and defensive efficiency rating inside the top ten.
They pass the eye test and check the metrics box, but can their resume catch up with what we know to be analytically true? The hesitancy for many to crown them the best team in the conference is their lack of impressive wins compared to their conference counterparts. They took a step in that direction this past weekend with a dominant 82-59 defeat of #22 Ole Miss and will have another chance to capture an impressive win Wednesday night against Alabama.
If they can pile up high caliber wins, we’ll know they are for real.
Kentucky
If you like offense, look no further than the Kentucky Wildcats.
They are ranked second nationally in scoring at 91.6 ppg and ninth nationally in assists per game at 18.9. This offensive prowess has been on full display the entire season as they rank fourth in KenPom’s ranking of most efficient offenses.
Perhaps the most shocking thing we know about Kentucky to this point is that they are led in scoring by a senior. Trust me, I triple checked. Behind him, though, is one more senior, one sophomore, and a bunch of talented freshmen.
The biggest question I have for the Wildcats is, can the freshmen avoid hitting a wall down the stretch? Kentucky, under John Calipari, has adopted the (mostly) 1-and-done model which last produced a championship in 2012. At this point, that is looking like an anomaly. Most teams since have either not been able to figure it out from the get go or have fizzled out as the season progressed.
Can Kentucky stay poised behind senior leader Antonio Reeves, or will the freshmen, who account for over 70% of the Wildcats’ offensive output, collapse as the pressure rises?
Tennessee
The Volunteers may be the most complete team in the conference and one of the most complete in the entire country; They rank second nationally in defensive efficiency and are led by Dalton Knecht who is averaging 18.8 ppg while shooting 47.8% from the field and 40% from three.
They have a strong interior presence both offensively and defensively in Jonas Aidoo and a clear floor general in Zakai Zeigler. Not to mention, this squad is composed mostly of upperclassmen. But stop me if you have heard this before: “this may be the best offensive Tennessee team we have seen in a while” just for them to underachieve in tournament play.
With Knecht leading the way, this may truly be one of the best offensive Tennessee squads we have seen in quite some time, but do they have a reliable at-will scorer if/when Knecht has an off game? Zeigler is shooting under 40% from the field, and if you take away Aidoo’s points off assists, is he dependable enough to go to in crunch time if Knecht is unavailable?
Tennessee checks a lot of boxes that champions normally do, but finding a consistent, reliable, and diverse second scoring option behind Dalton Knecht may be the difference between a long run in March and another early exit.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide are tied for second in the conference with Kentucky and Tennessee and just saw their first SEC loss on Saturday to the Volunteers 91-71. Similar to the Vols, Alabama ranks as one of the nation’s best offensively as they’re averaging just shy of 90 ppg.
Their clear leader on offense is Mark Sears who is scoring 19.8 ppg on an impressive 53.3% from the field. Put simply, Alabama can score with the best of them. However, in their six losses this season, Bama is surrendering an ugly 88.7 ppg and ranks well outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency.
The biggest question for them is can they demonstrate any semblance of quality defense to match their stellar offense? I don’t think it’s feasible that they’ll morph into one of the nation’s best defensive units (as some teams do as the season develops), but they do not need to in order to achieve their goals.
Their offense is potent enough to beat most teams when it’s clicking. However, they just need a defense capable of weathering bouts of subpar offense, because trying to win shoot-outs is nearly a death wish for any team in a lose and go home scenario.
South Carolina
Probably the most shocking team this season in the SEC is the Gamecocks.
There is nothing statistically that “wows” you about this team….aside from their record at 15-3. They’re fairly pedestrian on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but this is a unit that plays well together and seems to really enjoy playing for their coach, Lamont Paris who is just in his second year with the school.
The Gamecocks are ahead of schedule as they were projected to finish last in the conference, so their biggest question is, can they continue this pace? As of right now, they’re projected as one of the last four teams into the big dance by bracketology guru, Joe Lunardi. To even be in consideration for a bid to March Madness, South Carolina is right where they want to be.
The question is, though, will their bubble burst or will they continue to overachieve and sneak into March?
Georgia
I talked about Georgia’s (and LSU’s for that matter) dark horse potential in the SEC and then they promptly lost their next game. To be fair, that was to Kentucky in a close loss.
Georgia still has a great shot at staying within striking distance of the top five spots within the conference but can they defeat one of the SEC elites to do so? All of their losses have been by single digits including a seven point loss to Tennessee and a nine point defeat to Kentucky.
Can Georgia finally get over the hump in a close game against a top SEC team to solidify themselves as a viable SEC darkhorse?
LSU
The Bayou Bengals are tied with Georgia and South Carolina for 5th in the conference, and similar to the Bulldogs and Gamecocks, LSU has dark horse potential. They have a quality in-conference win over Ole Miss, but suffered an ugly home loss to Texas A&M.
This makes it clear: can the Tigers find some consistency and stay within the 2nd tier of the SEC? If they continue trading quality wins for frustrating losses, LSU will quickly find themselves near the bottom of the conference.