For my rankings, I rely on these stats in this order: FIP, OPS (on-base + slugging), K%, QS (Quality Starts) from the 2024 season. These are four of the best stats I believe in determining and ranking starting pitchers in college baseball and how dominant/elite they are.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is similar to ERA, but it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over -- strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and home runs. It entirely removes results on balls hit into the field of play. Where the "FIP constant" puts FIP onto the same scale as the entire league's ERA: ((HR x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) - (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant. Using FIP and OPS (Players with IP > 50 or IP >= team[G|PIT]
1. Hagen Smith - Arkansas LHP
One of if not the biggest names/arms in the SEC and upcoming MLB Draft (15th overall, 2nd pitcher only) is the 6ft 3in 225lb southpaw, Hagen Smith.
In his 7 starts of 35IP this season, he leads the SEC with 5 QS (1st in sec), a 1.52 FIP (2nd in SEC), .461 opponent OPS (T-SEC best), and dominates the SEC in K% sitting at 54.5% (14.5% better than 2nd). Smith’s arsenal consists primarily of a 95 mph fastball that reaches 98 mph and an 84 mph slider, but also has an 88 mph changeup, and an 86 mph cutter. His low three-quarter slot fastball is electric but his advanced slider is his best pitch. He throws his slider 36% of the time, generates 69% of his strikeouts, an unbelievable 59% miss rate, and a .103BAA.
It’s easy to see why this flame throwing lefty ranks atop this list and is a top prospect in the upcoming MLB Draft with his arsenal, command, and pitch ability.
2. Carter Holton - Vanderbilt RHP
Holton isn’t the biggest pitching name in the SEC but when you dive into these stats, he’s proven to be one of the best in the conference.
In 6 starts totalling 35IP this season, he’s produced 3 QS (5th), a FIP of 1.27 (SEC best), .461 opponent OPS (T-SEC best), and a 38% K% (5th). Holton’s arsenal consists of a fastball, curveball, slider, and change, with the curveball being his go to put away pitch. His arsenal consists of a 93 mph average fastball, 78 mph curveball, 84 mph slider, and 84 mph changeup. His curveball is his put away pitch. He throws it 25% of the time generating a 36% miss rate, with hitters batting an incredible .107AVG off of it. 31% of his strikeouts come from his curveball.
Holton is currently the No. 49th ranked prospect in the 2023 MLB Draft. He has an electric arsenal and is a dominant pitcher according to these sabermetric statistics in the SEC amongst starters.
3. Ryan Prager - Texas A&M LHP
One of two Texas A&M Aggies high on this list. Ryan Pragger is not currently on the MLB Top Prospects list for the upcoming MLB Draft but will and should climb soon.
The redshirt sophomore spent the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and is back and fully healthy now. Prager started the season incredibly hot with a 24-inning scoreless streak before losing it versus Florida via a Jac Caglianone 1st inning homer in the conference opener. In Prager’s 8 starts this season, he’s tallied 4 QS (T-3rd in SEC), a 1.86 FIP (3rd), a .478 opponent OPS (3rd), and a 39% K% (3rd).
Prager’s arsenal consists of a 91 mph fastball, an 83 mph slider, and an 81 mph changeup. The lefty’s slider is his best pitch, growing it 42% of the time, racking up 52% of his strikeouts with a K% of 40%. Opponents are hitting only .167AVG (4th in SEC) off of Prager, who has really made a name for himself this season so far and should only continue to do so.
4. Luke Holman - LSU RHP
One of the biggest pickups in the transfer portal from Alabama and now the Friday night guy for the Tigers. The 35th ranked prospect in the upcoming 2024 MLB Draft. In his 7 starts, he’s recorded 2 quality starts in his 36IP. Holman has a 2.12 FIP (4th in SEC), .533 OPS (4th), and a 38% K% (5th).
His arsenal consists of a 92 mph fastball, an 82 mph slider, and a 78 mph curveball. His slider is his best pitch and put away pitch. He throws it 36% of the time and records a monstrous 58% K% with it (26 of his 55 Ks), with a .119BAA. It seems utterly impossible to replace Paul Skenes but Holman has been fantastic for LSU this season.
5. Justin Lamkin - Texas A&M LHP
Another left-handed, Texas A&M Aggie in the top of 5 is sophomore Justin Lamkin. The Aggies have one of the best pitching staffs as a whole in the SEC and when you dive into the numbers, it makes sense. In his 8 starts this season, he’s thrown 43.2IP and but tallied only 1 QS. He has a 2.41 FIP (5th in SEC), an opponent OPS of .572 (7th), and a 33% K% (9th in SEC).
Lampkin’s arsenal consists of a 91 mph slider, a 78 mph slider, and an 82 mph changeup. His slider is his best pitch FIP wise (1.79), K% wise (47%), and opponent average wise (.188BAA). His changeup is fantastic as well but doesn’t throw it nearly as much as his slider or as much as he could. Lamkin was the Sunday starter to start the season but has gotten the Saturday nod the past two weekends.
The one-two punch of Prager and Lamkin is legit and gives teams no breathing room from Friday to Saturday.
6. Eli Jones - South Carolina RHP
South Carolina has found another Friday night stud in Eli Jones. The junior righty has come off a very good 2023 season in which he was primarily a reliever with only 6 starts. Jones has started 7 games thus far and racked up 4 QS (T-3rd in SEC), a 2.48 FIP (6th in SEC), a .579 OPS against (8th in SEC), but ranks 25th in K% at 19%.
His arsenal consists of a 92 mph fastball, an 88 mph changeup, an 85 mph slider, and an 82 mph curveball. His slider is his best pitch racking up50% of his strikeouts (19% K%), a .191BAA, and a 1.91 FIP. Jones has proven to be a fantastic Friday night starter for the Gamecocks week in and week out.
7. Bryce Cunningham - Vanderbilt RHP
Another Vandy Boys pitcher ranks in the top 10 on this list is junior right-handed pitcher Bryce Cunningham. Although not ranked as a top prospect in the upcoming 2024 MLB draft, he’s got the ability to really jump up throughout the season.
Cunningham has made 7 starts, compiling 37.2IP and recorded 2 QS. He has a 2.67 FIP (7th in SEC), a .579 OPS against (10th in SEC), and a 37% K% (8th in SEC). His arsenal consists of a 95 mph fastball, an 87 mph changeup, and an 85 mph slider. His changeup is by far his best pitch and one of the best pitches in the SEC. He only throws it 15% of the time but should throw it more. He has an insane 57% K% with it, a .091BAA, and an unbelievable -0.51 FIP.
He lives in the lower half of the zone and gets a 41% chase rate with it. He had a rough outing versus South Carolina two weekends ago but outside that has been very solid. Tim Corbin’s clubs have always been known for their pitching and they do again this season.
8. Mason Molina - Arkansas LHP
Another Razorback pitcher lands inside the top 8 with Texas Tech transfer, Mason Molina. The junior southpaw isn’t currently ranked as a top prospect for the 2024 MLB Draft but expect him to be ranked soon and a double digit ranking.
Molina has transitioned into Arkansas smoothly and looks very comfortable in the Saturday role for Dave Van Horn’s squad after being the Friday night guy at Texas Tech in 2023. Molina has made 7 starts, although none being deemed QS surprisingly. He’s tallied a 2.84 FIP (9th in SEC), a .560 opponent OPS (6th in SEC), and a 40% K% (2nd in SEC) behind only his teammate, Hagen Smith.
Molina’s arsenal consists of a 90 mph fastball average, a 75 mph curveball, an 80 mph slider, and an 81 mph changeup. He’s a heavy fastball usage guy coming in at 66% usage. His best and most used offspeed pitch is his changeup tallying a 0.41 FIP, .160BAA and a K% of 42%. Molina is able to throw all three of his offspeed pitches for strikes and as put away pitches with all having a K% over 42%, an FIP under 0.71, and a 1.60BAA or better.
He truly is a four-pitch pitcher with elite stuff.
9. Dominic Niman - Kentucky LHP
Kentucky is currently leading the SEC standings at 8-1 and Central Connecticut grad transfer, Dominic Niman, has been a big part of their success. Niman has started 7 games, tallying 38.2IP and had 3 QS (T-5th in SEC), with a 3.10 FIP (11th in SEC), a .637 opponent OPS (14th in SEC), and a 21% K% (23rd in SEC).
His arsenal consists of a 91 mph fastball, an 81 mph slider, an 85 mph cutter, and an 86 mph change. His best pitch is his slider that has a K% of 33%, and a .133BAA. Niman has been the Saturday guy for the Wildcats and a huge pickup in the transfer portal for head coach Nick Mangione.
10. AJ Causey - Tennessee RHP
Rounding out the Top 10 is the Jacksonville State transfer, AJ Causey of the Tennessee Volunteers. Causey has been great this season , outside of his recent start versus a power Georgia lineup. He started briefly as a reliever before moving to a starting role; then he slid into the Friday night spot and has done so well.
Causey has made 5 starts with 3 of them being quality starts (T-5th in SEC). He’s got an FIP of 3.35 (14th in SEC), a .678 opponent OPS (17th in SEC)), and a 32% K% (12th in SEC). The sidearm righty’s arsenal consists of a 90 mph fastball, a 74 mph slider, and a79 mph changeup. His slider is by far his best pitch (25% usage), with an unbelievable -1.11 FIP, a 57% K%, and a .095BAA.
Causey is such a unique and tough pitcher to read & pick up the ball out of his hand, especially for righties as it seems to start behind you. Head Coach Tony Vitello has to love what he’s seen from Causey from the jump and throughout the season.
Conlcusion
There are SO many fantastic pitchers in the SEC. Some teams and pitchers have had a much harder schedule than others overall at this midseason point in the year.
For example, Florida (3rd hardest overall Strength of Schedule [SOS] in the nation), Ole Miss (7th), Georgia (12th), Auburn (14th), South Carolina (15th), and Arkansas (16th). Others have had some of the toughest stretches of SEC series in a row. For example: Auburn: vs #8 Vanderbilt, AT #1 Arkansas, AT #4 Texas A&M, next vs #5 Tennessee.
Then there’s LSU: AT Mississippi State, vs #8 Florida, AT #1 Arkansas, next vs #6 Vanderbilt, then AT #5 Tennessee.
As for the rest of the top 20 best starting pitchers, my rankings are as follows:
- Riley Maddox - Ole Miss RHP
- Charlie Goldenstein - Georgia LHP
- Jurrangelo Cijntje - Mississippi State BHP
- Brady Tygart - Arkansas RHP
- Jac Caglianone - Florida RHP
- Cade Fischer - Florida RHP
- Greg Farone - Alabama LHP
- Drew Beam - Tennessee RHP
- Carter Rustad - Missouri RHP
- Mason Moore - Kentucky RHP