Just a week ago, the South Carolina Gamecocks were 21-3, in first place in the SEC and catapulted in the national rankings to #11. They were, perhaps, one of the hottest teams in the country and were a lock for the NCAA tournament. 

That all changed this past week.

The Gamecocks suffered a 40 point defeat on the road against Auburn, did not make the NCAA basketball committee’s top 16 in its bracket preview, and lost again, this time at home to the LSU Tigers. WIth everything seemingly going their way, the Gamecocks have crashed back to earth.

So, is it time to panic in Columbia? I think it’s far too soon to hit the panic button. However, there is reason to be significantly concerned as the final stretch of the season is here.

The loss to Auburn can easily be described as catching a team at the wrong time and place. Auburn is nearly unbeatable at home and were coming off a disappointing road loss to the Florida Gators. South Carolina had an off night and all of the necessary components for a blowout were there. This loss, as bad as it was, is no reason to panic.

But what happened against the LSU Tigers is far more concerning. Entering the game, the Tigers were 12-12, ranked 10th in the SEC, and were on a 3 game losing streak.This is a game the Gamecocks should have dominated, especially playing at home on the heels of a lopsided defeat. Not only did they lose the game, but South Carolina blew a 16 point lead.

If the season were to end today, the Gamecocks would qualify for the tournament. That said, if their performance against LSU is any indication of how they’ll perform down the stretch, they may soon find themselves on the outside looking in come March. 

It seems weird suggesting that a team with 2 victories against AP top 10 opponents could miss the tournament, but that possibility exists. Despite these 2 impressive wins, the Gamecocks currently rank 58th in the NET rankings and have little room for error as the regular season is coming to an end.

The NCAA tournament committee values consistency, strength of schedule, and how a team finishes the season in addition to quality wins when determining who is in and who is out. We have seen several teams with quality wins get left out over the years if the committee feels they did not display a full body of work against a tough schedule compared to another team. 

The point is, South Carolina does not want to put the committee in a position where their tournament candidacy is in question. I think they have a strong case for the tournament, but how the Gamecocks fare over the final 5 games will decide their fate.

The remainder of USC’s schedule features three road games and the two home games- one game against the Volunteers, who will have revenge on their mind, and the other against the Gators who seem to be peaking at the right time. There are plenty of opportunities, however, to accumulate quad 1 and 2 wins to further secure a tournament bid.

They have what it takes to win all of these games and make a long tournament run. If they play like they did against LSU, though, they’d be lucky to win another game and would be in danger of missing out on the tournament. Only time will tell how it’ll all play out for the Gamecocks.