Just when we thought the SEC couldn’t get any more confusing, more chaos ensued this week as Arkansas took down Texas A&M and dark horse candidates, Ole Miss and South Carolina, both suffered their second conference loss. One thing is certain, however, based on resume, the eye test, and overall talent, the top tier in the SEC is Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
Just on the outside looking in are Georgia and LSU, who both tied for third in the conference with one loss. That begs the question, could one or both of these teams play their way into the top tier of the SEC and challenge for the title of regular season champion?
Let’s take a closer look at each team and the case for and against their dark horse potential.
Georgia
Sitting at 13-4 on the year and 3-1 in the conference, the Bulldogs are surprising many as they were projected to finish near the bottom of the conference. They are coming off a big road win against the Gamecocks to sit in a three way tie for third in the conference. This is an impressive start for a team that many had written off before the season started.
They are led by senior guards Jabri-Abdur Rahim and Noah Thomasson who are averaging 12.8 and 12.4 ppg, respectively. As a team, Georgia ranks 107th and 43rd for offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. Georgia’s four losses thus far are all to power-five programs and the average margin of defeat in those games is less than nine points.
While Georgia has avoided a “bad loss” and been competitive in all of their games, they have yet to land a signature win. However, they have an opportunity to truly emerge as a team to be reckoned with if they can take Kentucky down this Saturday.
LSU
The Tigers have a record identical to Georgia's: 13-4 overall and 3-1 in the conference. Their one conference loss was a fifteen point defeat to Auburn.
The Tigers are led by senior guard Jordan Wright, who is averaging 15.9 ppg and 2.4 apg and junior guard Jalen Cook, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 3.0 apg. Similar to Georgia, LSU ranks outside the top 100 for offensive efficiency and just inside the top 50 for defensive efficiency with rankings of 127th and 49th, respectively.
We have seen the good and the bad from LSU thus far; The good occurred just last night as they claimed their first big win, defeating #22 Ole Miss 89-80. The bad is really bad: a 68-66 loss to Nicholls in the second game of the year in which LSU was favored by 19.5 points at home.
The level of inconsistency poses the question: can LSU be trusted?
Why They're CONTENDERS
Supporting both Georgia’s and LSU’s chances of being a dark horse in the SEC is their veteran leadership as the majority of their players who log meaningful minutes are upperclassmen. This experience will be crucial for enduring a full season and maneuvering the inevitable obstacles that will come their way.
Also, the Bulldogs and Tigers both have only one conference loss thus far; each one losing to one of the top teams in the SEC. Lastly, in addition to still having the bulk of their SEC schedule ahead of them, they will play one another twice and will each have three more matchups against the conference elites.
If they can continue to collect wins against middle of the pack teams, possibly collect a couple of wins against the top tier, and get some help along the way as the top teams will likely beat up on each other, there is a chance either one of these teams can sneak into at least the top three at the end of the season with the chance to claim the top seed.
Why They're PRETENDERS
The lack of offensive firepower is concerning. Both teams possess a respectable defense which will help keep them competitive in most, if not all, of their games. As they begin to play more balanced and elite teams within the conference, they will need more out of their offense to have a legitimate shot at winning.
Looming for the Bulldogs are matchups against Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn (twice), while the Tigers will face-off against Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama (twice). Auburn is one of only two teams in the country (Arizona) who possesses an offensive and defensive efficiency rating inside the top 10. Kentucky and Alabama boast top 5 offenses, while Tennessee is the 2nd ranked defensive team nationally. Point being, in order to beat teams like this, you must attack them with balance and in a variety of ways.
I am not sure either team possesses an offense diverse and potent enough to consistently compete against the elites.
The Bottom Line
Both teams are off to great starts this year and deserve attention at this juncture of the season. There is a case to be made for either one of these two teams being there in the end vying for the top seed, however unlikely that may be.
I still believe that the top tier is and will remain Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and the ceiling for the Bulldogs and Tigers is a middle of the conference finish.
This is college basketball, though, and crazier things have happened.